Overview:
The MORS Certificate in U.S. National Security Risk Analysis is a five-day course designed for all levels of analysts seeking to understand the basic concept of risk as it relates to national security. Probability, uncertainty, consequences, fear, and human control all come into play when it comes to risk. The course will start by exploring typically fuzzy problems and move them towards quantitative risk evaluation. Throughout the course, participants will survey several quantitative risk methodologies, including fault trees, value-based decisions, the Lagrange-multiplier method, and modern data visualization.
Students will learn quantitative risk evaluation, build probability models, compute the value of information, and survey best practices for communicating risk. The course will start by exploring typically fuzzy problems and moving them towards quantitative risk evaluation. Participants will survey several quantitative risk methodologies, including fault trees, value-based decisions, Lagrange-multiplier method, and modern data visualization.
Objectives:
Our expert instructors will introduce participants to a variety of key tools and methods used in risk analysis as it pertains to national security. Participants will learn quantitative risk evaluation, build probability models, compute the value of information, and survey best practices for communicating risk. By the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- Conceptualize national security risk problems
- Structure adversarial risk problems with shifting evidence
- Survey quantitative risk methodologies
- Use Monte Carlo Simulation for risk analysis
- Communicate risk to executives, analysts, and the public
Requirements: Computer with Excel and administrative privileges to download SIPMath (a simulation tool) and Netica (Bayesian network / Influence diagram)