National Security Risk Analysis
Our speaker Prof. Yakov Ben-Haim will be presenting, “Strategic Planning for Defense and Security: An Info-Gap Approach.”
There is a moral imperative to do one's best when making high-consequence decisions for defense and security. However, our understanding is often wrong, and we are frequently surprised. Using our faulty understanding in trying to optimize policy outcomes is infeasible, even irresponsible. The practical implication of deep uncertainty is that we must ask: What outcomes are required? What performance is essential? How can we maximize our robustness against surprise? Under deep uncertainty, do not try to optimize the outcome. Rather, make the outcome good enough, and maximize the robustness against uncertainty. We describe the methodology of info-gap decision theory and consider two examples: (1) qualitative analysis of the decision to invade Iraq in 2002, (2) quantitative methods for force development.
To participate, please use the below:
Phone: +1 (646) 749-3122
Access Code: 415-074-061